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Ensembles in the Age of Overparameterization: Promises and Pathologies

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Abstract: Ensemble methods have historically used either high-bias base learners (e.g. through boosting) or high-variance base learners (e.g. through bagging). Modern neural networks cannot be understood through this classic bias-variance tradeoff, yet "deep ensembles" are pervasive in safety-critical and high-uncertainty application domains. This talk will cover surprising and counterintuitive phenomena that emerge when ensembling overparameterized base models like neural networks. While deep ensembles improve generalization in a simple and cost-effective manner, their accuracy and robustness are often outperformed by single (but larger) models. Furthermore, discouraging diversity amongst component models often improves the ensemble's predictive performance, counter to classic intuitions underpinning bagging and feature subsetting techniques. I will connect these empirical findings with new theoretical characterizations of overparameterized ensembles, and I will conclude with implications for uncertainty quantification, robustness, and decision making.
Event Type
Location
ICCS X836 / Zoom
Speaker
Geoff Pleiss, UBC Statistics Assistant Professor
Event date time
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Modelling Complex Biologging Data with Hidden Markov Models

To join this seminar virtually: Please request Zoom connection details from ea@stat.ubc.ca.

Abstract:  Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to identify latent processes from observed time series, but it is challenging to fit them to large and complex time series collected by modern sensors. Using data from threatened resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) off the western coast of Canada as a case study, we provide solutions to three common challenges faced when identifying latent behaviour from complicated biologging data. First, biologging time series often violate common assumptions of HMMs when collected at high frequencies. We thus propose a hierarchical approach which utilizes moving-window Fourier analysis to capture fine-scale dependence structures. Second, modern technology allows researchers to directly label the latent process of interest, but rare labels can have a negligible influence on parameter estimates. We introduce a weighted likelihood approach that increases the relative influence of labelled observations. Third, applying HMMs to large time series is computationally demanding, so we propose a novel EM algorithm that combines a partial E step with variance-reduced stochastic optimization within the M step. These solutions allow researchers to model biologging data with HMMs that are more interpretable, accurate, and efficient to fit than existing methods.

Location
ESB 4192 / Zoom
Speaker
Evan Sidrow, UBC Statistics PhD student
Event date time
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